Home Prices Fall But Sales Continue to Climb
November 11, 2009
A real estate group says home prices fell in eight out of every 10 U.S. cities in the third quarter of this year as heavily discounted distressed sales made up 30 percent of all deals.
But home sales continued their climb, with quarterly sales outpacing the second quarter and the previous year’s figures, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.
The median sales prices of existing homes declined in 123 out of 153 metropolitan areas compared with the same period a year ago. Prices rose in the other 30 cities.
The national median price was $177,900, or 11 percent below that of the third quarter last year.
“The decline in the national median price has moderated recently, and a shrinking supply of unsold inventory suggests we are getting closer to price stabilization in many areas,” said Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist. “But we need a steady stream of financially qualified buyers to further reduce inventory and get us to a self-sustaining market.”
Separately, the Treasury Department said Tuesday that as of the end of October, more than 650,000 borrowers, or 20 percent of those eligible, had signed up for the Obama administration’s mortgage-relief program to reduce monthly payments to more affordable levels.
Launched with great fanfare in March, the plan got off to a weak start, but now nearly 920,000 loan-modification offers have been sent to more than 3.2 million eligible homeowners. That works out to 29 percent, up from 15 percent at the end of July.
The homes report said prices in Fort Myers, Fla., plunged 40 percent to $98,000 from a year ago, the worst in the nation. Las Vegas saw its median price tumble almost 35 percent to $138,500 year over year.
The largest price gain, by contrast, was in Cumberland, Md., where prices jumped 19 percent to $122,100. Davenport, Iowa, followed with an increase of 14 percent to $115,600.
The federal tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers helped boost sales in the third quarter. U.S. home sales rose in 45 states from the second quarter, with 28 states posting double-digit gains.
Total quarterly sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.3 million, up more than 11 percent from 4.76 million in the second quarter.
President Obama signed a bill last week extending and expanding the federal tax credit. Now, buyers who have owned their current homes for at least five years are eligible for tax credits of up to $6,500. First-time homebuyers – or anyone who hasn’t owned a home in the past three years – would still get up to $8,000. To qualify, buyers have to sign a purchase agreement by April 30, 2010, and close by June 30.
Meanwhile, though the Obama administration’s mortgage-relief program has reached one in five eligible homeowners, most of those borrowers are on temporary trial plans.
To make the change permanent, borrowers must complete a big stack of paperwork and show they can make their payments on time. At the beginning of September, only about 1,700 permanent modifications had been made. The Treasury Department expects to release updated data later this month.
“We’re seeing some early indications that the servicers haven’t done enough to get all the documents in,” said Michael Barr, an assistant Treasury secretary.
In California, about 130,000 homeowners have been enrolled in the “Making Home Affordable” loan-modification plan. That works out to about 19 percent of the state’s homeowners who were either two payments behind or in foreclosure at the end of last month, according to Treasury Department data.
Two other hard-hit states, Arizona and Nevada, had similar rates of assistance as California, at 22 percent and 18 percent respectively. Florida, however, was much lower, at 12 percent, possibly because of high numbers of investor-owned properties that don’t qualify for the program.
Government officials say they are pressing mortgage companies hard to improve their performance. Still, many housing advocates have been disappointed with the $50 billion plan’s progress and say that getting a loan modification remains a battle.
Source: The Washington Times
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Homebuyer’s Tax Credit Applies to Higher Income, Move-up Buyers
November 3, 2009
The Senate is expected this week to pass an extension of the credit that was originally going to expire Nov. 30. Buyers who sign a purchase agreement by April can now claim the credit.
The extension will apply to higher income buyers. Previously the credit was available to individual filers making $75,000 a year or less. For couples the limit was $150,000. The new income limit will be $125,000 for individuals and $225,000 for couples.
There’s also something in for move-up buyers. Previously you couldn’t claim the credit if you owned a home in the past three years. Now, if your last home was your primary residence for at lease five years, you can claim $6,500 in credit if you buy a new home. The new house can’t cost more than $800,000 though.
Just in time to kick Washington into action, the National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales jumped 6% today. That’s the eighth month in a row of sales increases and the longest rising streak since 2001. “What we’re witnessing is a rush of first-time buyers trying to beat the expiration of the tax credit at the end of this month,” said the association’s chief economist Lawrence Yun.
Jim McQuaig, a mortgage broker in Reston, Virginia, said he recently completed financing for a woman buying a $430,000 home who said the $8,000 tax credit was the incentive.
Imagine that, one of the largest purchases of your life and you’re moved to do it by a tax credit worth less than 2% for the purchase price!
Source: BusinessWeek
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Pending Home Sales Rise for Record 8 Straight Months
November 3, 2009
Pending home sales rose again, marking eight consecutive monthly gains–the longest streak since measurement began in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in September 2009, rose 6.1% to 110.1 from a reading of 103.8 in August, and is 21.2% higher than September 2008 when it stood at 90.9. The gain from a year ago is the largest annual increase on record, and the index is at the highest level since December 2006 when it was 112.8.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the momentum is understandable. “What we’re witnessing is a rush of first-time buyers trying to beat the expiration of the tax credit at the end of this month,” he said. “Home values will stabilize sooner rather than over-correcting. That, in turn, will mean wealth stabilization for the vast number of middle-class families and lay the foundation for a durable economic recovery.”
NAR estimates approximately 3 million renters are now financially well-qualified to buy a median-priced home. “As long as buyers do not overstretch and stay well within their budget, a sizable pent-up demand can be tapped among financially qualified potential buyers,” Yun said. “Although the tax credit is greatly reviving the existing home market, new-home sales may continue to struggle as home builders hold back production to drive down inventory. In addition, there remains an ongoing credit crunch for construction loans.”
The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast slipped 2.0% to 83.6 in September but remains 16.9% above September 2008. In the Midwest the index rose 8.1% to 98.2 in September and is 17.8% higher than a year ago. In the South, pending home sales increased 4.9% to an index of 109.7 and is 22.8% above September 2008. In the West the index jumped 10.2% to 143.8 and is 23.7% above a year ago.
Yun added that strong near-term reports should not be overstated. “We’re clearly not out of the woods because an excess of homes remains on the market despite recent improvements,” he said. “Although current inventory is getting closer to price equilibrium, foreclosures will continue to enter the pipeline. An extended and expanded tax credit would help absorb this incoming inventory.”
For more information, visit www.realtor.org.
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Big Rebound in Existing Home Sales Shows First Time Buyer Momentum
October 26, 2009
Existing-home sales bounced back strongly in September with first-time buyers driving much of the activity, marking five gains in the past six months, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Existing-home sales–including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops–jumped 9.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million units in September from a level of 5.10 million in August, and are 9.2% higher than the 5.10 million-unit pace in September 2008. Sales activity is at the highest level in over two years, since it hit 5.73 million in July 2007.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said favorable conditions matched with a tax credit are boosting home sales. “Much of the momentum is from people responding to the first-time buyer tax credit, which is freeing many sellers to make a trade and buy another home,” he said. “We are hopeful the tax credit will be extended and possibly expanded to more buyers, at least through the middle of next year, because the rising sales momentum needs to continue for a few additional quarters until we reach a point of a self-sustaining recovery.”
Even with the improvement, Yun said the market is underperforming. “Despite spectacular gains in the stock market, principally from the financial sector recovery, most of the 75 million home owning families have more wealth tied to their homes. Home values could soon turn consistently positive and help the broad base of middle-class families, but we are not there yet,” he said. “We’re getting early indications of price stabilization, but we need a steady supply of qualified buyers to meaningfully bring inventories down and return us to a period of normal, steady price growth and to fully remove consumer fears, which would then revive the broader economy. Without a firm foundation for middle-class wealth recovery, the post-recession economic growth likely will be one of the weakest in U.S. history.”
Early information from a large annual consumer study to be released November 13, the 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, shows that first-time home buyers accounted for more than 45% of home sales during the past year. A separate practitioner survey shows that distressed homes accounted for 29% of transactions in September.
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said affordability conditions remain historically high. “Potential first-time buyers can take heart in that affordability conditions this year are the highest on record dating back to 1970, but with the first-time buyer tax credit scheduled to expire at the end of next month, people could hold back from entering the market,” he said. “Our read is that housing overshot on the downside because homes are selling for less than replacement construction costs in much of the country, and the home price-to-income ratio has fallen below the historical average,” McMillan said.
Total housing inventory at the end of September fell 7.5% to 3.63 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 7.8-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 9.3-month supply in August. Unsold inventory totals are 15.0% below a year ago.
“The current housing supply is the lowest we’ve seen in two and a half years,” Yun said. “If we could continue to absorb inventory at this pace, home prices would return to normal, modest appreciation patterns next year.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.06% in September from 5.19% in August; the rate was 6.04% in September 2008. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $174,900 in September, which is 8.5% lower than September 2008. Distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.
Single-family home sales rose 9.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million in September from a pace of 4.47 million in August, and are 7.7% above the 4.54 million-unit level in September 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $174,900 in September, which is 8.1% below a year ago. Existing condominium and co-op sales jumped 9.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 680,000 units in September from 620,000 in August, and are 9.7% above the 561,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price was $175,100 in September, down 11.7% from September 2008.
Northeast
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 4.4% to an annual level of 950,000 in September, and are 11.8% higher than September 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $234,700, down 7.0% from a year ago.
Midwest
Existing-home sales in the Midwest jumped 9.6% in September to a pace of 1.25 million and are 7.8% above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $147,600, which is 1.0% below September 2008.
South
In the South, existing-home sales rose 9.0% to an annual level of 2.06 million in September and are 10.8% higher than September 2008. The median price in the South was $153,500, down 7.6% from a year ago.
West
Existing-home sales in the West surged 13.0% to an annual rate of 1.30 million in September and are 5.7% above a year ago. The median price in the West was $219,000, which is 15.0% below September 2008.
For more information, visit www.realtor.org.
Source: RISMedia
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Existing Home Sales Rebound to 2 Year High
October 23, 2009
Sales of previously owned U.S. homes surged to their highest level in more than two years in September, a survey showed on Friday, providing further evidence the housing market and economy were on the mend.
The National Association of Realtors said sales surged 9.4 percent to an annual rate of 5.57 million units, the highest level since July 2007, from a downwardly revised 5.09 million units in August.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected September sales to rise to a 5.35 million unit pace from the previously reported 5.10 million units in August.
William Larkin, portfolio manager with Cabot Money Management in Boston, said home sales were bolstered by a government program to give first-time buyers a tax credit.
“The existing home sales data is a good sign for the housing market. I would assume a lot of first-time buyers have scrambled to get this $8,000 credit. That will be the part that is hard to define within the numbers,” he said.
“It definitely looks like the stimulus that is going into housing is starting to form a bottom.”
U.S. stock indexes briefly recouped losses on the data, while government bond prices were little moved.
The housing sector’s collapse and the subsequent global credit crisishelped to push the U.S. economy into recession at the end of December, its worst slump in 70 years.
But the housing market is gradually crawling out of a three-year recession, and analysts believe that in the third quarter residential investment probably contributed to economic growth for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2005.
Signs of recovery in the housing market, coupled with other fairly upbeat data, strongly suggest the economy started growing again in the third quarter after four straight quarters of declining output.
Compared to September last year, existing home sales were up 9.2 percent.
Sales for both new and previously owned homes have boosted by a combination of a the popular $8,000 government tax credit for first-time buyers, low prices and mortgage rates.
But there are fears that the expiration of the tax credit at the end of November could hamper the recovery.
The Obama administration is still considering extending the program but is weighing that against efforts to bring down the federal deficit, senior White House officials said on Wednesday.
“We are hopeful the tax credit will be extended and possibly expanded to more buyers … because the rising sales momentum needs to continue for a few additional quarters until we reach a point of self-sustaining recovery,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun
The national median home price fell 8.5 percent to $174,900 in September from a year-ago. That was the smallest percentage decline in 13 months, the NAR said. Distressed properties made up 29 percent of sales last month, with first-time buyers accounting for 31 percent.
The inventory of existing homes for sale in September dropped 7.5 percent to 3.63 million units. September’s sales pace left the supply of previously owned homes on the market at 7.8 months’ worth, the lowest in two-and-a-half months, from 9.3 months’ worth in August.
Source: Reuters
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AP – Home Sales Rise 9.4% in September
October 23, 2009
Home resales rose in September to the highest level in more than two years, beating expectations, as buyers scrambled to complete their purchases before a tax credit for first-time owners expires.
The National Association of Realtors said Friday that sales rose 9.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million in September, from a downwardly revised pace of 5.1 million in August. Sales had been expected to rise to an annual pace of 5.35 million, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.
The median sales price was $174,900, down 8.5 percent from a year earlier, and slightly lower than August’s median of $177,300.
“There’s a mini-boom going on in the housing market,” said Thomas Popik, who conducts a monthly survey of real estate agents for Campbell Communications, a research firm.
The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell about 7 percent to 3.63 million. That’s a 7.8 month supply at the current sales pace, and the lowest level since March 2007. Nationwide sales are up nearly 24 percent from their bottom in January, but are still down 23 percent from four years ago.
Sales rose around the country, especially in the West, where they grew 13 percent from a month earlier. Foreclosure sales are booming in cities like Los Angeles, San Diego and Las Vegas.
First-time homebuyers and investors are snapping up those homes and taking advantage of low mortgage rates. These buyers can also take advantage of a tax credit of 10 percent of the sales price, up to $8,000, if the sale is completed by the end of November.
The tax credit is so important to some buyers that they are adding a clause to their contracts, allowing them to back out if the sale doesn’t close by Nov. 30.
While home sales and housing construction have risen steadily after hitting bottom earlier this year, most economists believe that the worst isn’t over for home values.
Prices could see a double dip because rising unemployment is causing more foreclosures. The jobless rate, currently at 9.8 percent is expected to rise as high as 10.5 percent next year, causing more people to be unable to afford their monthly mortgage payment.
“There’s more supply that’s going to come into the marketplace,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist at real estate Web site Zillow.com. “That additional supply will outpace demand.”
With concerns about the housing market still prominent, Congress is considering several proposals to extend the tax credit for first-time buyers. Senators Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., and Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., want to extend it through June 30, and expand it to include all home buyers, at an estimated cost of $16.7 billion.
Realtors and homebuilders are pressing lawmakers to do so, arguing that the tax credit is crucial to get the housing market back on its feet.
“We are not there in terms of removing the consumer fear factor,” said Lawrence Yun, the Realtors’ chief economist.
One potential roadblock, however, emerged this week. There are concerns that some of the 1.5 million applications for the tax credit are fraudulent.
At a hearing on Thursday the Treasury Department’s inspector general for taxes questioned the legitimacy of some 100,000 claims for the credit, potentially including some illegal immigrants and 580 people under 18. The youngest taxpayers to apply for the credit were 4 years old.
Source: The Washington Times
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Housing Tax Credit Working, NAR Says Keep Momentum Going
October 22, 2009
Consumers are just starting to see the first glimmers of a bright future for the housing market and the overall economy. It’s up to Congress to make that glimmer a reality by building on the momentum created by the $8,000 home buyer tax credit.
One of the key ways to do that is for Congress to extend the home buyer tax credit, said National Association of Realtors® First Vice President Ron Phipps to the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee during a hearing on “The State of the Nation’s Housing Market.”
“The data on the present home buyer tax credit show that the credit has had its intended impact—sales have jumped in recent months to a projected 5.1 million for the year and housing inventory has been trimmed, thus stabilizing home prices noticeably,” Phipps said. He also pointed out that each home sale generates approximately $63,000 in additional economic activity, providing a tremendous economic boost to the national economy.
“But it is a fragile recovery, and now is the time to build on home sales momentum by extending the tax credit throughout 2010 and expanding it to all home buyers,” he said. The present credit, due to expire on November 30, cannot help new purchasers now who write a contract today—they won’t be able to close before the deadline, and will lose out on the credit, said Phipps. “Without congressional action now, the market and our national economy may freeze again—possibly as soon as this month.”
Phipps called upon Congress to take action on a number of additional fronts to strengthen the recovery. First, make the FHA and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac loan limits permanent; these are set to expire on December 31. “Maintaining current loan limits would ensure that families have access to low-cost financing to purchase homes and can refinance problematic loans into safer, more affordable mortgages,” Phipps said.
In addition, Congress should continue federal government involvement in the secondary mortgage market. “Without the government’s involvement in the secondary mortgage market, market participants will have no incentive to reach out to lower income, creditworthy consumers. We must ensure that the housing market works in all markets and at all times and that mortgage capital is provided to all potential and qualified purchasers in a way that promotes sustainable homeownership,” said Phipps.
Congress must also adequately address:
-The lack of liquidity in the jumbo mortgage market;
-Tight credit in the commercial real estate market;
-The Home Valuation Code of Conduct’s unintended side effects that are hindering sales;
-Increased funding to help FHA upgrade their technology and for Congress to ensure that funding be included in the final version of the FY2010 appropriation for HUD;
-Administration incentives and uniform procedures for speeding short sales under a new Foreclosure Alternative Program; and
-The potential for significant spikes in interest rates or disruptions to the flow of mortgage capital as the Federal Reserve unwinds the mortgage-backed securities purchase program to ensure that this does not happen.
For more information, visit www.realtor.org.
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Industry’s Most Powerful Associations Send Letter to Administration Advocating for Extension of Homebuyer Tax Credit
October 20, 2009
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) along with the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) sent a letter to senior Obama Administration officials yesterday requesting their support for a 12-month extension of the first-time homebuyer tax credit.
The letter, addressed to Treasury Secretary Geithner, HUD Secretary Donovan and National Economic Council Chair Summers, outlines why the three organizations believe that the tax credit has had a stimulative effect on not only the housing market, but on the U.S. economy as a whole.
A copy of the letter is below:
Dear Secretaries Geithner and Donovan and Dr. Summers:
The undersigned trade associations have supported the first-time homebuyer tax credit as an effective housing stimulus during the current economic crisis. Congress established the homebuyer credit as part of the Housing and Economy Recovery Act of 2008 and it was subsequently expanded in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) recently reported that over 1.4 million taxpayers have benefited from the tax credit as of August 2009.
The current global credit crunch and economic recession began in the U.S. housing market and recovery will not be complete until the housing market returns to economic health. In normal times, housing represents approximately 15% of U.S. gross domestic product, with numerous spillover benefits into other parts of the economy. Although we are seeing some improvement in the housing market, it is essential that the favorable impact of the first-time homebuyer credit be sustained beyond the upcoming expiration date of November 30, 2009.
The undersigned trade associations request your support for the extension of the first-time homebuyer tax credit for twelve more months.
Economic Impacts of Housing
As the housing markets began to falter, the economic ripples were felt across a number of industries. This highlights that housing is a pillar of our economy, and emphasizes the need to ensure we do not jolt today’s very fragile housing market just as we are starting to see signs of stabilization. As the housing market recovers, so do a number of other businesses, including small businesses that rely on family expenditures that accompany home purchases.
NAR has estimated that the first-time homebuyer tax credit program has generated approximately 355,000 home sales above what would have occurred in the absence of a credit. The credit has also allowed greater mobility among sellers. Existing homeowners are able to relocate (or simply move to a different home) because their current home has been sold to an eligible tax credit buyer. These entry-level, credit-eligible purchases have helped to reduce the glut of homes presently for sale on the market.
This increased housing activity leads to other benefits as well. A December 2008 report by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) examined the spending behaviors of those who recently purchased a home. The study showed that buyers of newly-constructed homes spent an average of $12,332 on additional goods and services. Those who purchased an existing home spent an average of $8,927. The report indicated that this money is spent in three main areas: property repairs and alterations, appliances, and furnishings. NAHB has estimated that this spending, in addition to other economic benefits connected to housing activity stimulated by the tax credit program, has produced 187,000 jobs.
Importantly, the tax credit has produced tangible effects with respect to the imbalance between supply and demand in the housing market. New home inventory has continued to fall due to dramatic declines in construction. In addition, a welcome pickup in sales has also reduced inventory. Consequently, months-supply currently stands at 7 months, down from 12.4 months in January 2009. A healthy housing market ideally has 5 to 6 months-supply. Likewise, months-supply of existing homes on the market has fallen to 8.5 months, down from its high of 10.6 in November 2008.
Achieving equilibrium between supply and demand for housing is critical to stabilizing housing prices, and therefore household wealth. An extended homebuyer tax credit is a critical policy for achieving this goal.
Conclusion
The undersigned trade associations believe that the first-time homebuyer tax credit has had a stimulative impact on our economy. We support extending and even expanding it so the credit can help more buyers and sellers. As we approach the sunset date of the current $8,000 tax credit, we urge Congress to expand the program to include all purchasers of principal residences, increase the credit, make the funds available for closing, and extend the overall program by at least 12 months.
Our fragile economy is just beginning to show signs of recovery. We should not jeopardize that recovery by letting this tax credit expire. The homebuyer tax credit is helping hundreds of thousands of Americans realize the American dream, and it is creating thousands of jobs that rely on housing. Problems in the housing industry led us into a global recession and housing incentives can help lead us out of the recession.
Our members greatly appreciate the efforts that the current administration has made by helping troubled homeowners to stay in their homes, providing Treasury support to the secondary market for mortgages, and shoring up the housing industry through the first-time homebuyer tax credit. We encourage you to finish the job already started by extending and expanding the current first-time homebuyer tax credit.
Most sincerely,
Mortgage Bankers Association
National Association of Home Builders
National Association of Realtors
For more information, visit www.mbaa.org, www.nahb.org or www.realtor.org.
Source: RISMedia
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