Existing Home Sales Continue to Improve Through April 2010

June 1, 2010

Existing-home sales rose again in April 2010 with buyers motivated by the tax credit, improving consumer confidence and favorable affordability conditions, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 7.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million units in April from an upwardly revised 5.36 million in March, and are 22.8% higher than the 4.70 million-unit pace in April 2009. Monthly sales rose 7.0% in March.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the gain was widely anticipated. “The upswing in April existing-home sales was expected because of the tax credit inducement, and no doubt there will be some temporary fallback in the months immediately after it expires, but other factors also are supporting the market,” he said. “For people who were on the sidelines, there’s been a return of buyer confidence with stabilizing home prices, an improving economy and mortgage interest rates that remain historically low.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 5.10% in April from 4.97% in March; the rate was 4.91% in April 2009.

Total housing inventory at the end of April rose 11.5% to 4.04 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from an 8.1-month supply in March. Raw unsold inventory is 2.7% above a year ago, but remains 11.6% below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.

“Although inventory levels remain above normal and much of the gain last month was seasonal, the housing price correction appears essentially over,” Yun said. “In fact, a majority of the markets have seen price gains recently. A return to old-fashioned responsible lending and buying will help the housing market avoid disruptive and painful bubble-bust cycles.”

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $173,100 in April, up 4.0% from April 2009. Distressed homes accounted for 33% of sales last month, compared with 35% in March.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said buyer traffic is mixed. “It looks like the level of home sales that close in May and June will stay elevated, but many buyers remain in the market even without the tax credit,” she said. “Some Realtors tell us they are very busy with clients who are entering the market now as a result of improved conditions, while others are welcoming a slowdown from frantic market conditions in recent months.

“Buyers are focused on finding the right house and taking advantage of favorable affordability conditions. For many buyers, owning a home is a lifestyle choice. They want a place of their own to raise a family, build memories, and be part of a larger community,” Golder said.

A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 49% of homes in April, up from 44% in March. Investors accounted for 15% of transactions in April, down from 19% in March; the remaining sales were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales stood at 26% in April; they were 27% in March.

Single-family home sales rose 7.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million in April from a pace of 4.70 million in March, and are 20.5% above the 4.19 million level in April 2009. The median existing single-family home price was $173,400 in April, up 4.5% from a year ago.

Single-family median prices rose in 18 out of 20 metropolitan statistical areas reported in April from a year ago; six of the areas experienced double-digit increases. In data recently reported for the first quarter, 91 out of 152 metros saw price gains.

Existing condominium and co-op sales jumped 9.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 720,000 in April from 660,000 in March, and are 42.3% above the 506,000-unit pace in April 2009. The median existing condo price was $171,000 in April, which is 0.6% below a year ago.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast surged 21.1% to an annual level of 1.09 million in April and are 41.6% higher than a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $243,000, up 2.1% from April 2009.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 9.9% in April to a pace of 1.33 million and are 29.1% above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $146,400, up 5.8% from April 2009.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 8.6% to an annual level of 2.14 million in April and are 23.0% higher than April 2009. The median price in the South was $150,000, up 1.2% from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West fell 6.2% to an annual rate of 1.21 million in April but are 5.2% above a year ago. The median price in the West was $212,400, up 3.8% from April 2009.

For more information, visit www.realtors.org.

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Optimistic Outlook for Housing, But Challenges Remain

May 23, 2010

Economists participating in a recent NAHB Construction Forecast Conference Webinar agreed that the housing market is on the road to recovery, but cautioned that several factors could contribute to a bumpy ride in the coming months.

“Home buyer tax credits clearly did their job and got people back into the marketplace,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, who also served as moderator of the webinar.

With the expiration of the tax credits in April, Crowe said the housing momentum is being carried forward by low interest rates, pent up household formations, stabilizing prices and budding employment growth.

However, many factors continue to drag on housing at this time–including the critical shortage of credit for new and existing projects, competition from short sales and foreclosures and regional economic disparities.

The availability of acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) financing remains a major concern as the industry moves forward, Crowe said. “Builders still tell us that credit is extremely tight. Banks are saying not so much. That gap is an indication that something is broken, at least when it comes to residential construction.”

NAHB is forecasting 552,000 single-family starts in 2010, up 25% from last year’s 445,000 level, which was the lowest annual output since 1959 when the government began collecting this data.

Suffering from an acute shortage of available financing and a significant shadow inventory of homes lost to foreclosure that are competing against normal inventory, Crowe said that multifamily housing starts are expected to lose further ground this year, falling 18% to 93,000 units, before rebounding to 150,000 units in 2011.

Crowe anticipates that nationwide home prices will remain flat this year and post a modest increase in 2011 and that mortgage interest rates will continue to stay low, barely breaking 6% by the end of this year, and not rising much above that level through 2011.

The road back to normal levels of residential construction will be longer for some states than others. By the end of 2011, the top 20% of the states will see their production levels back to normal. Those states include Texas, Oklahoma, Montana, Wyoming, Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas and Kansas. The previous boom markets in California, Arizona, Florida and Nevada, along with the Great Lake states of Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Illinois and Wisconsin that were hit by deep cuts in auto production and manufacturing, will be the last ones to recover.

Housing Demand Reflects Job Growth
Like his co-panelists, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said that housing will improve as the job market does. He forecast that the economy will average monthly job gains of 125,000 this year, 250,000 in 2011 and 300,000 in 2012.

Mirroring anticipated employment growth, Zandi expects GDP to rise 3% this year, approximately 4% in 2011 and closer to 5% in 2012.

The key factor driving housing demand is jobs, said Zandi. “We’re not going to get home sales unless we have jobs. Here the prospect is good. Business balance sheets are in good shape and improving rapidly. These are pre-conditions for better job growth and we should see the job market steadily gain traction.”

Zandi forecast that overall housing starts will total 700,000 units this year, close to 1 million in 2011 and about 1.7 million by 2012, which he describes as close to trend and consistent with demographics in a normal functioning economy.

Driven largely by the high foreclosure rate, Zandi expects that home prices will continue to fall modestly in 2010, down about 5% on a national average. He calculates that the difference between supply and demand is approximately 750,000 units annually, and it will require until the end of 2011 to work off this extra inventory.

“The good news,” he said, is “as the job market improves, so will household formations and demand. So I anticipate we will work off the excess inventory more quickly than the two-year period.”

He added that most of the housing surplus is regionally concentrated in Florida, around Atlanta, along the South Carolina coast, in Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson and in the central valley of California.

Consumers Fuel Recovery
Taking the most bullish approach to the ongoing recovery, Chris Varvares, president of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, forecast that GDP will rise 3.7% this year and that housing starts will total 750,000, well above the Blue Chip Economic Indicators consensus of 690,000.

“Personal consumption expenditures are making a very solid recovery,” said Varvares. “Residential investment is going from a drag to a contributor. The difference between our forecast and the consensus is the strength in personal consumption and housing.”

Although the huge number of foreclosures on the market are accounting for about 300,000 to 400,000 fewer starts than there otherwise would be, Varvares said the fundamentals still point to a solid trajectory for housing.

“With prices stabilizing, demand is picking up and we expect builders to respond. By the end of 2011, we expect about 1.2 million housing starts. This suggests we can have recovery in starts this strong while simultaneously working down excess housing inventory.”

The panelists were in unanimous agreement on a number of areas–the Federal Reserve will likely continue to keep interest rates near rock bottom levels at least through the end of the year; the chance of a double dip recession is extremely slim; and policymakers will need to take action within the next two years to increase revenues and cut spending to rein in the burgeoning structural deficit.

For more information, visit www.nahb.org.

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Mortgage Rates at Lowest Levels in Six Weeks

May 17, 2010

Freddie Mac recently released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.00% with an average 0.7 point for the week ending May 6, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 5.06%. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.84%.

The 15-year FRM this week averaged 4.36% with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.39%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.51%.

The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.97% this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.00%. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.90%.

The 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 4.07% this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.25%. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.78%.

“Treasury bond and note yields declined this week, and rates on fixed-rate mortgages and hybrid ARMs followed suit,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “Rates for both the 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages were the lowest in six weeks; initial rates on 5/1 hybrid ARMs hit an all-time low since they were added to the survey in the beginning of 2005.

“The home buyer tax credit helped support home sales in March, and anecdotal reports point to strong April sales as well. Pending existing home sales rose for the second consecutive month in March to the strongest pace since October 2009, just before the original deadline for the credit, based on figures published by the National Association of Realtors. Three of the four Census regions showed an uptick in sales, led by the South with a 12.7% gain, while sales in the Northeast fell 3.3%. To receive the federal tax credit, home buyers had to sign contracts by April 30th and settle by June 30th of this year.”

For more information, visit www.freddiemac.com.

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New Home Sales Bounce Almost 27% Higher on Average in March 2010

May 3, 2010

Sales of new homes broke out of a four-month winter slump with a bang in March 2010, soaring 26.9% over February, the government recently said, evidence that federal tax incentives for buyers due to expire next week are giving the housing market a boost.

The March figures were meager by historical standards, bouncing off an all-time low in February, and analysts said job creation was paramount for the momentum to sustain itself.

“It shows that the tax credit still has some punch, and we will probably see some better sales numbers for April,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com. But “if we don’t get more jobs, the housing market is going nowhere.”

The news came after a report showed that sales of previously owned homes rose 6.8% in March. Although new-home sales make up a much smaller share of home-buying activity, economists are watching the data carefully as an indicator of whether the beleaguered construction industry will begin to add jobs in substantial numbers.

Home builders’ stocks climbed, with the Standard & Poor’s index of 12 major builders increasing nearly 11%.

Last year, housing was a drag on economic growth, but that could turn this year, said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Homebuilders. Housing should contribute positively to the nation’s first-quarter growth when the government’s report on gross domestic product is released, he said.

New-home sales in March jumped the most in markets hit by February’s winter storms. They rose 43.5% in the South, 35.7% in the Northeast, 5.7% in the West and 4.3% in the Midwest.

The data are estimates based on surveys and are reported as an annual sales pace adjusted to take seasonal variations into account. The March sales pace hit an annual rate of 411,000 homes.

February’s revised annual rate of 324,000 was the lowest since the government began tracking such statistics in 1963. That made it easy for March figures to show a surge.

Zandi estimated that, stripping out the effects of February’s inclement weather and the influence of the tax credit, last month’s sales pace was closer to 350,000.

“The one thing to keep in mind is that these are still really horrible numbers,” said Patrick Newport, U.S. economist for the consultancy IHS Global Insight. “The only reason they look good is because February’s were the worst numbers ever.”

Sales are likely to fall once the tax credit expires but will recover later this year if the economy picks up steam, he said.

Newport was encouraged that about a third of homes bought in March had not begun construction, which suggests the shoppers, who were unlikely to close their sales in time to qualify for the government’s tax credit, were tempted by factors such as cheap prices and low interest rates.

Richard Voith, a real estate expert at the consulting firm Econsult Corp. in Philadelphia, predicted that the momentum would continue. “It will be a decent summer,” he said.

Inventory declined to levels not seen since March 1971, with the seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of last month standing at 228,000. That represents a supply of 6.7 months at the current sales rate. The median sales price of new houses sold in March was $214,000.

Builders have suffered significantly from the recession, the credit crunch and competition from bank-owned properties. As a result, they have changed their business models, constructing smaller, cheaper dwellings to attract first-time buyers and putting up fewer houses that don’t have buyers lined up in advance.

Despite slumping sales this year, builders have begun construction on homes at a faster rate than last year, with many counting on a boost from the federal tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time purchasers and $6,500 for some current homeowners.

“New homes are selling, so builders were smart,” Newport said. “They are not going to slow down the pace.”

(c) 2010, Tribune Co.

Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

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Pending Home Sales Show Healthy Gain, Hint at Spring Surge

April 12, 2010

Pending home sales rose in February 2010, potentially signaling a second surge of home sales in response to the home buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in February, rose 8.2% to 97.6 from a downwardly revised 90.2 in January, and remains 17.3% above February 2009 when it was 83.2. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which usually occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the improvement is another hopeful sign. “The rise in buyer contact activity may signal the early stages of a second surge of home sales this spring. The healthy gain hints home prices are continuing to flatten,” he said. “We need a second surge to meaningfully draw down inventory and definitively stabilize home values.”

The PHSI in the Northeast rose 9.0% to 77.7 in February and is 18.9% higher than February 2009. In the Midwest the index jumped 21.8% to 97.9 and is 18.7% above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South increased 9.2% to an index of 107.0, and the index is 17.5% higher than February 2009. In the West the index fell 4.8% to 98.0 but is 14.6% above a year ago.

“Anecdotally, we’re hearing about a rise of activity in recent weeks with ongoing reports of multiple offers in more markets, so the March data could demonstrate additional improvement from buyers responding to the tax credit,” Yun said.

For more information, visit www.realtor.org.

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5 Popular Kitchen and Bath Upgrades

March 15, 2010

Instead of playing the trade-up game, more homeowners are staying in their homes, upgrading kitchens and baths and building additions to accommodate their needs instead of moving into a bigger house, but there are also some early signs of an improving real estate market, according to a new survey of architecture firms.

More architects say they’re seeing demand for and inquiries about home-remodeling projects, including kitchen and bath upgrades and home additions. And an increasing percentage of architects say business conditions in the first-time buyer and affordable home market also improved in the fourth quarter of 2009, compared with the fourth quarter a year earlier, according to the American Institute of Architects’ Home Design Trends Survey. The survey of 500 residential architecture firms is conducted each quarter.

A net 28% of architects responding to the survey said they’re seeing greater interest among homeowners for kitchen and bath remodels, up from -16% a year ago, and a net 21% said demand for additions and alterations is improving, versus -14% a year ago. The survey figures are computed as the percentage of respondents reporting an improvement in business conditions minus those reporting a decrease.

Meanwhile, a net -4% of the architects surveyed said the market for homes for first-time buyers is improving, up from -65% a year earlier. A net -31% said the market for move-up homes is improving, compared with -71% a year ago.

“It’s still too early to think the residential market has fully recovered, but there are two encouraging signs—overall business conditions are far better than they were a year ago at this time, and we are seeing improvement in those housing sectors that need to lead a broader improvement in the housing market: remodeling and alterations of existing homes, and at the entry-level of the new construction market,” said Kermit Baker, chief economist of the American Institute of Architects.

Baker said homeowners are making improvements thoughtfully, not banking on recouping the entire cost at resale or over-improving with upscale features as they might have several years ago. And projects are typically smaller in scope these days. “The mentality is evolving that bigger isn’t better for my home, from an investment perspective,” Baker said.

As for first-time home buyers, Baker said that conditions are likely improving due to the first-time home buyer tax credit, low mortgage rates and the ability of these first-timers to buy a home without having to sell an existing home first.

For the most part, kitchens are being upgraded with practical improvements and features to make the space more usable. “A lot of the upscale stuff, like double appliances—two dishwashers or two refrigerators—or over-the-top appliances seem to have disappeared,” Baker said.

The five most popular kitchen products and features, according to the survey include:
-Recycling center, a designated place to put cans, papers, etc., which could be in the form of a nook or even part of the lower cabinetry
-Larger pantry space
-Renewable flooring materials
-Renewable countertop materials
-Computer area/recharging stations, dedicated to such tasks as recharging laptops, cell phones and PDAs.

The same desire for practicality and less glitz can be found in the bathroom. People are moving away from steam showers and towel-warming drawers and racks, and instead focusing on features that will help them better control their utility costs, Baker said.

The five most popular bathroom products and features include:
-Water-saving toilets
-Radiant heated floors
-Accessibility/universal design, or features that are adaptable and allow homeowners to age in place
-LED lighting
-Doorless showers.

(c) 2010, MarketWatch.com Inc.

Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

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Housing Starts Rise in January 2010

February 22, 2010

Nationwide housing production hit its strongest pace in the last six months this January, posting a 2.8% gain to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000 units, according to figures recently released by the U.S. Commerce Department.

“Builders are starting to see the positive impacts of home buyer tax credits and other favorable buying conditions in terms of consumer demand, and are cautiously increasing production to meet that demand,” said National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Chairman Bob Jones, a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Mich.

“As our latest home builder surveys have indicated, today’s excellent home buying conditions–including the availability of tax credits for first-time and repeat buyers, very favorable mortgage rates and stabilizing home values–are helping drive potential buyers back to the market,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. However, he said, “A continuing shortfall in available credit for building projects is still producing a drag on new construction and slowing the progress of recovery in housing and the overall economy.”

The overall gain in housing starts was reflected on both the single- and multi-family side this January. While single-family starts posted a 1.5% gain to a seasonally adjusted, annual rate of 484,000 units, multifamily starts posted a 9.2% gain to 107,000 units.

Meanwhile, overall permit issuance, which can be an indicator of future building activity, fell 4.9% to a rate of 621,000 units in January. This was due entirely to a 23% decline to 114,000 units on the multifamily side, which offset a big gain in that sector the previous month. Single-family permits held virtually even, with a 0.4% gain to 507,000 units.

Combined single- and multifamily housing starts rose in three out of four regions this January. The South and West each registered a third consecutive month of improvement, with 1% and 8.9% gains, respectively, and the Northeast also posted a 10% gain. The Midwest saw a 3.2% decline in overall housing starts.

Conversely, permit issuance declined in three out of four regions this January. The West was the only region to post a gain, of 8.5%, while declines of 17.8%, 20.2% and 1.3% were registered in the Northeast, Midwest and South, respectively.

For more information, visit www.nahb.org.

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Housing Starts Regain Ground in November 2009

December 18, 2009

Nationwide housing production rose 8.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 574,000 units in November 2009, according to figures released by the U.S. Commerce Department. The gain represented a partial bounce-back from an exceptionally slow month for housing activity in October, and was largely attributed to a big increase on the multifamily side.

construction“The fact that both starts and permits for new housing production rose last month is a good sign that we’re headed in the right direction, albeit slowly, on the road to a housing recovery,” said Joe Robson, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. “That said, the November improvement was primarily on the multifamily side, and poor job markets and other economic factors are still keeping many potential buyers on the fence for the time being.”

“Home builders remain very cautious about starting new homes, and overall housing production is still down on a three-month average basis,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Understandably, it will take some time for the newly extended and expanded home buyer tax credit to start boosting sales in individual markets–just as it did the last time such an incentive was enacted. However, the fact that permits increased in November is a hopeful indication that the desired impact of the tax credit on housing demand may be forthcoming early in 2010. In the meantime, credit for new housing production remains extremely difficult to come by, posing significant obstacles to builders with viable projects.”

Single-family housing starts made up some of the ground they lost in October, posting a modest 2.1% gain to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 482,000 units in November. Meanwhile, multifamily starts rebounded from an all-time record low in the previous month with a 67.3% gain to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 92,000 units in November.

Gains in housing production were registered across all regions of the country in November, with a 16.4% increase in the Northeast, a 3% gain in the Midwest, a 12.3% increase in the South and a nearly 2% gain in the West.

Permit issuance, which can be an indicator of future building activity, rose 6% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 584,000 units, its highest level in a year. Single-family permits rose 5.3% to 473,000 units, while multifamily permits rose 8.8% to 111,000 units.

Three out of four regions posted gains in housing permits for November, with a 4.7% increase reported in the Northeast, a 10.7% increase posted in the South, and a 2.7% gain registered in the West. The Midwest posted a 1.9% decline.

For more information, visit www.nahb.org.

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