Housing Starts Rise in January 2010
February 22, 2010
Nationwide housing production hit its strongest pace in the last six months this January, posting a 2.8% gain to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000 units, according to figures recently released by the U.S. Commerce Department.
“Builders are starting to see the positive impacts of home buyer tax credits and other favorable buying conditions in terms of consumer demand, and are cautiously increasing production to meet that demand,” said National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Chairman Bob Jones, a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Mich.
“As our latest home builder surveys have indicated, today’s excellent home buying conditions–including the availability of tax credits for first-time and repeat buyers, very favorable mortgage rates and stabilizing home values–are helping drive potential buyers back to the market,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. However, he said, “A continuing shortfall in available credit for building projects is still producing a drag on new construction and slowing the progress of recovery in housing and the overall economy.”
The overall gain in housing starts was reflected on both the single- and multi-family side this January. While single-family starts posted a 1.5% gain to a seasonally adjusted, annual rate of 484,000 units, multifamily starts posted a 9.2% gain to 107,000 units.
Meanwhile, overall permit issuance, which can be an indicator of future building activity, fell 4.9% to a rate of 621,000 units in January. This was due entirely to a 23% decline to 114,000 units on the multifamily side, which offset a big gain in that sector the previous month. Single-family permits held virtually even, with a 0.4% gain to 507,000 units.
Combined single- and multifamily housing starts rose in three out of four regions this January. The South and West each registered a third consecutive month of improvement, with 1% and 8.9% gains, respectively, and the Northeast also posted a 10% gain. The Midwest saw a 3.2% decline in overall housing starts.
Conversely, permit issuance declined in three out of four regions this January. The West was the only region to post a gain, of 8.5%, while declines of 17.8%, 20.2% and 1.3% were registered in the Northeast, Midwest and South, respectively.
For more information, visit www.nahb.org.
Source: RISMedia
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Housing Starts Regain Ground in November 2009
December 18, 2009
Nationwide housing production rose 8.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 574,000 units in November 2009, according to figures released by the U.S. Commerce Department. The gain represented a partial bounce-back from an exceptionally slow month for housing activity in October, and was largely attributed to a big increase on the multifamily side.
“The fact that both starts and permits for new housing production rose last month is a good sign that we’re headed in the right direction, albeit slowly, on the road to a housing recovery,” said Joe Robson, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. “That said, the November improvement was primarily on the multifamily side, and poor job markets and other economic factors are still keeping many potential buyers on the fence for the time being.”
“Home builders remain very cautious about starting new homes, and overall housing production is still down on a three-month average basis,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Understandably, it will take some time for the newly extended and expanded home buyer tax credit to start boosting sales in individual markets–just as it did the last time such an incentive was enacted. However, the fact that permits increased in November is a hopeful indication that the desired impact of the tax credit on housing demand may be forthcoming early in 2010. In the meantime, credit for new housing production remains extremely difficult to come by, posing significant obstacles to builders with viable projects.”
Single-family housing starts made up some of the ground they lost in October, posting a modest 2.1% gain to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 482,000 units in November. Meanwhile, multifamily starts rebounded from an all-time record low in the previous month with a 67.3% gain to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 92,000 units in November.
Gains in housing production were registered across all regions of the country in November, with a 16.4% increase in the Northeast, a 3% gain in the Midwest, a 12.3% increase in the South and a nearly 2% gain in the West.
Permit issuance, which can be an indicator of future building activity, rose 6% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 584,000 units, its highest level in a year. Single-family permits rose 5.3% to 473,000 units, while multifamily permits rose 8.8% to 111,000 units.
Three out of four regions posted gains in housing permits for November, with a 4.7% increase reported in the Northeast, a 10.7% increase posted in the South, and a 2.7% gain registered in the West. The Midwest posted a 1.9% decline.
For more information, visit www.nahb.org.
Read more: http://rismedia.com/2009-12-17/housing-starts-regain-ground-in-november-2009/#ixzz0a3l8s8N1
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U.S. Home Value Losses Stabilize in 2009; Homeowners Lose Nearly $500 Billion in Value
December 15, 2009
U.S. homes lost $489 billion in home values during the first 11 months of 2009, significantly less than the $3.6 trillion lost during 2008, according to analysis of recent Zillow Real Estate Market Reports. Forty-eight of the 154 markets tracked by Zillow showed gains in home values during 2009, with the Boston metropolitan statistical area (MSA) showing the largest gain of $23.3 billion. The Providence, R.I. MSA was second on the list, with a gain of $12.4 billion.
The stabilization in home values led to easing rates of negative equity in the third quarter of 2009, with 21% of all single-family homeowners with mortgages underwater, compared to 23% in the second quarter.
“Home values stabilized significantly during the second half of 2009, with the total dollar value of U.S. homes increasing since June,” said Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist. “Most housing markets across the country had a good summer, spurred largely by the government’s tax credits for homebuyers combined with very low mortgage rates. Unfortunately, we believe that demand will come under downward pressure as mortgage rates creep back up after the first quarter and that housing supply will experience upward pressure as the volume of foreclosures continues to remain high. Both these factors will challenge the recent stabilization of home prices.”
The biggest home value losses, in terms of total dollars lost in 2009, were in the large MSAs of Los Angeles (down $60.8 billion), Chicago (down $49.6 billion) and New York (down $49 billion). The large overall losses were due to a combination of the high number of homes in these metro areas, along with decreases in median home values.
For more information, visit www.Zillow.com.
Read more: http://rismedia.com/2009-12-09/u-s-home-value-losses-stabilize-in-2009-homeowners-lose-nearly-500-billion-in-value/#ixzz0Zm6OfoIq
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Housing and Economy Headed for Sustainable Recovery
November 18, 2009
Aided by the home buyer tax credit, the outlook for housing and the economy appears headed for a sustainable recovery, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the projections are enhanced by a tax credit expansion to more home buyers through the middle of 2010. “Given the success of the first-time buyer tax credit to date, and the need for qualified buyers to continue to absorb inventory that will include additional foreclosures over the coming year, we are hopeful about the impact of the expanded tax credit because it will stabilize home prices,” he said. “In fact, the credit is working better than first projected – it now looks like we’ll have 2.3 to 2.4 million first-time buyers this year.”
The 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, shows first-time buyers accounted for a record 47% share of home sales over the past year, up from 41% in the 2008 survey. The share has risen steadily since a cyclical low of 36% in 2006.
Existing-home sales are expected to total 5.01 million in 2009, a gain of 2.0% over last year, and then are forecast to rise 13.6% to 5.69 million in 2010. “A steady draw down of inventory will help home values to turn positive in 2010, but risks such as unemployment remain in the economy,” Yun said.
New-home sales are projected at 397,000 this year, recovering to 549,000 in 2010. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should total 564,000 units this year but grow to 752,000 in 2010.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 5.3% in the fourth quarter, rising gradually to 5.8% by the end of next year. NAR’s housing affordability index will set a record in 2009, averaging 30 percentage points higher than 2008. Affordability will decline from record highs next year but will remain at historically attractive levels for home buyers.
“We’ve seen a steady downtrend in housing inventory for well over a year and home prices appear to be in the early stages of stabilizing. With the expansion of the tax credit to additional buyers through the middle of next year, and no major unforeseen events impacting the economy, home prices should rise between 3 and 5% in 2010, but with wide geographic differences,” Yun said. He expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product to be at a pace of 2.5% in the current quarter, with GDP up 2.8% in 2010.
The unemployment rate is close to peaking and is projected to ease to 9.5% by the end of next year.
“The size of the U.S. budget deficit is a concern going forward, and carries the risk of higher inflation. At this point, that risk appears to be restrained,” Yun said. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen contracting 0.4% this year, then rising 1.6% in 2010. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is estimated to grow 0.4% this year and 1.2% next year.
For more information, visit www.realtor.org.
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Existing Home Sales Surge in Many States in Third Quarter
November 16, 2009
Most states continued to experience rising existing-home sales in the third quarter 2009, with prices moderating in many metro areas, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Realtors®. Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, increased 11.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.30 million units in the third quarter from 4.76 million units in the second quarter, and are now 5.9% above the 5.01 million-unit pace in the third quarter of 2008. Sales increased from the second quarter in 45 states and the District of Columbia; 28 states and D.C. saw double-digit gains. Year-over-year sales were higher in 32 states and D.C.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the tax credit is a significant factor. “We can’t underestimate just how powerful a catalyst the first-time home buyer tax credit has been for the housing sector,” he said. “It’s given buyers the confidence they needed to get off the fence and take advantage of extremely affordable housing conditions. The buying conditions this year are the most favorable on record dating back to 1970, but the tax credit is allowing buyers to set aside any reservations about waiting for a better deal.”
During the third quarter, 123 out of 153 metropolitan statistical areas reported lower median existing single-family home prices in comparison with the third quarter of 2008, while 30 areas had price gains.
The national median existing single-family price was $177,900, which is 11.2% below the third quarter of 2008; the median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. Distressed sales- foreclosures and short sales- accounted for 30% of transactions in the third quarter, which continued to weigh down median home prices because they sell at a discount relative to traditional homes.
“The decline in the national median price has moderated recently, and a shrinking supply of unsold inventory suggests we are getting closer to price stabilization in many areas, but we need a steady stream of financially qualified buyers to further reduce inventory and get us to a self-sustaining market,” Yun said. “Foreclosures will continue to come on the market, but rising sales from the expanded tax credit should stabilize home prices by next spring and help to stem future foreclosures.”
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate on a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage rose to 5.16% in the third quarter from a record low 5.03% in the second quarter, but was dramatically lower than the 6.32% average rate in the third quarter of 2008.
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said he is encouraged by recent actions in Congress. “Extending and expanding the tax credit to more buyers through the middle of next year is the right medicine,” he said. “Congress understands the impact of housing on the economy, so consumers who aren’t able to complete a transaction before the end of this month now have a second chance but must have a contract in place by April 30, 2010.”
The biggest sales gain between the second and third quarters was in North Dakota, up 42.3%; followed by Rhode Island which rose 26.5%; and Pennsylvania, up 25.6%. The largest single-family home price increase in the third quarter was in the Cumberland area of Maryland and West Virginia at $122,100, up 19.2% from the third quarter of 2008. Next was the Davenport-Moline-Rock Island area of Iowa and Illinois, where the median price increased 14.3% to $115,600, followed by Oklahoma City, at $144,100, up 9.1% from a year ago.
“The wide range of market performance and reversals around the country, ranging from double-digit gains to double-digit losses in both sales and prices, underscores just how local real estate truly is,” Yun said. “The wide changes and mix of numbers also indicates a market in transition, hopefully to one that is becoming more balanced and stable.”
Median third-quarter metro area single-family home prices ranged from a very affordable $61,400 in the Saginaw-Saginaw Township North area of Michigan to $566,000 in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area of California. The second most expensive area in the third quarter was San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont at $538,100; followed by the Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine area of California at $498,800.
Other affordable markets include the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman area of Ohio and Pennsylvania at $70,700, and Lansing-East Lansing, Mich., at $86,600.
In the condo sector, metro area condominium and cooperative prices- covering changes in 55 metro areas- showed the national median existing-condo price was $178,000 in the third quarter, down 15.4% from the third quarter of 2008. Four metros showed annual increases in the median condo price and 51 areas had declines.
The metros experiencing condo price gains were San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, at $215,100, up 13.3%; followed by the Cincinnati-Middletown area, up 2.0% to $119,700; the Toledo, Ohio, area, where the median price of $130,400 rose 1.7% from the third quarter of 2008; and the Indianapolis area at $114,400, up 0.8%.
Metro area median existing-condo prices in the third quarter ranged from $67,600 in Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev., to $432,800 in San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont. The second most expensive reported condo market was New York-Wayne-White Plains at $297,500, followed by Boston-Cambridge-Quincy at $293,700. Other affordable condo markets include Reno-Sparks, Nev., at $81,300 in the third quarter, and Jacksonville, Fla., at $91,600.
Northeast
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast surged 16.7% in the third quarter to a pace of 930,000 units and are 6.9% higher than a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast declined 9.4% to $244,500 in the third quarter from the same quarter in 2008. The best price gain in the region was in Buffalo-Niagara Falls, N.Y., where the median price of $119,700 rose 4.8% from the third quarter of 2008; followed by Manchester-Nashua, N.H., at $237,600, up 2.6%; and the Pittsburgh area, where the median price rose 1.5 percent to $124,600.
Midwest
In the Midwest, existing-home sales jumped 13.2% in the third quarter to a pace of 1.20 million and are 5.2% above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest was down 5.5% to $150,200 in the third quarter from the same period in 2008. After Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, the next strongest metro price increase in the region was in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, where the median price of $145,700 was 7.6% higher than a year ago; followed by Bismarck, N.D., at $157,200, up 7.5%; and Ft. Wayne, Ind., where the median price rose 6.9 percent to $102,500.
South
In the South, existing-home sales rose 11.3% in the third quarter to an annual rate of 1.97 million and are 5.9% higher than the third quarter of 2008. The median existing single-family home price in the South was $160,000 in the third quarter, down 7.9% from a year earlier. After Cumberland and Oklahoma City, the next strongest price increase in the region was in Shreveport-Bossier City, La., at $152,300, up 8.6% from the third quarter of 2008; Jackson, Miss., at $141,200, up 4.6%; and Durham, N.C., where the median price rose 3.6% to $184,300.
West
Existing-home sales in the West increased 5.6% in the third quarter to an annual rate of 1.19 million and are 4.6% above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the West was $224,000 in the third quarter, which is 16.4% below the third quarter of 2008. The best metro price performance in the West was in Yakima, Wash., where the median price of $158,400 rose 2.7% from a year earlier; the Denver-Aurora area at $229,100, up 1.8%; and the Kennewick-Richland-Pasco area of Washington, where the median price rose 0.7% to $172,200.
For more information, visit www.realtor.org.
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Home Prices Fall But Sales Continue to Climb
November 11, 2009
A real estate group says home prices fell in eight out of every 10 U.S. cities in the third quarter of this year as heavily discounted distressed sales made up 30 percent of all deals.
But home sales continued their climb, with quarterly sales outpacing the second quarter and the previous year’s figures, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.
The median sales prices of existing homes declined in 123 out of 153 metropolitan areas compared with the same period a year ago. Prices rose in the other 30 cities.
The national median price was $177,900, or 11 percent below that of the third quarter last year.
“The decline in the national median price has moderated recently, and a shrinking supply of unsold inventory suggests we are getting closer to price stabilization in many areas,” said Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist. “But we need a steady stream of financially qualified buyers to further reduce inventory and get us to a self-sustaining market.”
Separately, the Treasury Department said Tuesday that as of the end of October, more than 650,000 borrowers, or 20 percent of those eligible, had signed up for the Obama administration’s mortgage-relief program to reduce monthly payments to more affordable levels.
Launched with great fanfare in March, the plan got off to a weak start, but now nearly 920,000 loan-modification offers have been sent to more than 3.2 million eligible homeowners. That works out to 29 percent, up from 15 percent at the end of July.
The homes report said prices in Fort Myers, Fla., plunged 40 percent to $98,000 from a year ago, the worst in the nation. Las Vegas saw its median price tumble almost 35 percent to $138,500 year over year.
The largest price gain, by contrast, was in Cumberland, Md., where prices jumped 19 percent to $122,100. Davenport, Iowa, followed with an increase of 14 percent to $115,600.
The federal tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers helped boost sales in the third quarter. U.S. home sales rose in 45 states from the second quarter, with 28 states posting double-digit gains.
Total quarterly sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.3 million, up more than 11 percent from 4.76 million in the second quarter.
President Obama signed a bill last week extending and expanding the federal tax credit. Now, buyers who have owned their current homes for at least five years are eligible for tax credits of up to $6,500. First-time homebuyers – or anyone who hasn’t owned a home in the past three years – would still get up to $8,000. To qualify, buyers have to sign a purchase agreement by April 30, 2010, and close by June 30.
Meanwhile, though the Obama administration’s mortgage-relief program has reached one in five eligible homeowners, most of those borrowers are on temporary trial plans.
To make the change permanent, borrowers must complete a big stack of paperwork and show they can make their payments on time. At the beginning of September, only about 1,700 permanent modifications had been made. The Treasury Department expects to release updated data later this month.
“We’re seeing some early indications that the servicers haven’t done enough to get all the documents in,” said Michael Barr, an assistant Treasury secretary.
In California, about 130,000 homeowners have been enrolled in the “Making Home Affordable” loan-modification plan. That works out to about 19 percent of the state’s homeowners who were either two payments behind or in foreclosure at the end of last month, according to Treasury Department data.
Two other hard-hit states, Arizona and Nevada, had similar rates of assistance as California, at 22 percent and 18 percent respectively. Florida, however, was much lower, at 12 percent, possibly because of high numbers of investor-owned properties that don’t qualify for the program.
Government officials say they are pressing mortgage companies hard to improve their performance. Still, many housing advocates have been disappointed with the $50 billion plan’s progress and say that getting a loan modification remains a battle.
Source: The Washington Times
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Homebuyer’s Tax Credit Applies to Higher Income, Move-up Buyers
November 3, 2009
The Senate is expected this week to pass an extension of the credit that was originally going to expire Nov. 30. Buyers who sign a purchase agreement by April can now claim the credit.
The extension will apply to higher income buyers. Previously the credit was available to individual filers making $75,000 a year or less. For couples the limit was $150,000. The new income limit will be $125,000 for individuals and $225,000 for couples.
There’s also something in for move-up buyers. Previously you couldn’t claim the credit if you owned a home in the past three years. Now, if your last home was your primary residence for at lease five years, you can claim $6,500 in credit if you buy a new home. The new house can’t cost more than $800,000 though.
Just in time to kick Washington into action, the National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales jumped 6% today. That’s the eighth month in a row of sales increases and the longest rising streak since 2001. “What we’re witnessing is a rush of first-time buyers trying to beat the expiration of the tax credit at the end of this month,” said the association’s chief economist Lawrence Yun.
Jim McQuaig, a mortgage broker in Reston, Virginia, said he recently completed financing for a woman buying a $430,000 home who said the $8,000 tax credit was the incentive.
Imagine that, one of the largest purchases of your life and you’re moved to do it by a tax credit worth less than 2% for the purchase price!
Source: BusinessWeek
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Pending Home Sales Rise for Record 8 Straight Months
November 3, 2009
Pending home sales rose again, marking eight consecutive monthly gains–the longest streak since measurement began in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in September 2009, rose 6.1% to 110.1 from a reading of 103.8 in August, and is 21.2% higher than September 2008 when it stood at 90.9. The gain from a year ago is the largest annual increase on record, and the index is at the highest level since December 2006 when it was 112.8.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the momentum is understandable. “What we’re witnessing is a rush of first-time buyers trying to beat the expiration of the tax credit at the end of this month,” he said. “Home values will stabilize sooner rather than over-correcting. That, in turn, will mean wealth stabilization for the vast number of middle-class families and lay the foundation for a durable economic recovery.”
NAR estimates approximately 3 million renters are now financially well-qualified to buy a median-priced home. “As long as buyers do not overstretch and stay well within their budget, a sizable pent-up demand can be tapped among financially qualified potential buyers,” Yun said. “Although the tax credit is greatly reviving the existing home market, new-home sales may continue to struggle as home builders hold back production to drive down inventory. In addition, there remains an ongoing credit crunch for construction loans.”
The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast slipped 2.0% to 83.6 in September but remains 16.9% above September 2008. In the Midwest the index rose 8.1% to 98.2 in September and is 17.8% higher than a year ago. In the South, pending home sales increased 4.9% to an index of 109.7 and is 22.8% above September 2008. In the West the index jumped 10.2% to 143.8 and is 23.7% above a year ago.
Yun added that strong near-term reports should not be overstated. “We’re clearly not out of the woods because an excess of homes remains on the market despite recent improvements,” he said. “Although current inventory is getting closer to price equilibrium, foreclosures will continue to enter the pipeline. An extended and expanded tax credit would help absorb this incoming inventory.”
For more information, visit www.realtor.org.
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