Reuters: Existing Home Sales Seen at Highest Since July 2007

November 20, 2009

Sales of existing U.S. homes likely rose for second consecutive month in October, reaching their highest level since July 2007, according to a Reuters poll, as buyers scrambled to take advantage of greater affordability and a first-time home buyer tax credit.

The survey of 29 economists predicted sales of previously owned homes climbed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.70 million, the fastest pace since 5.73 million units were sold in July 2007 and up from 5.57 million units in September.House

Forecasts, however, ranged widely, from as low as a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.26 million to as high as 6.00 million units.

Existing home sales have been on an upward trend for most of this year and an increase in October would mark the sixth gain in seven months. Home sales typically pick up in the spring as warmer weather boosts activity, but the momentum continued into most of the summer and fall.

Consumers have come out in droves to take advantage of the federal government’s $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit — part of the stimulus bill — which was originally set to end November 30.

The Obama administration recently extended the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit, added a $6,500 credit for home owners buying a new residence and increased income limits. Eligible borrowers must sign contracts by April 30 and close by June 30.

The lowest mortgage rates in decades and high affordability have also helped the housing market find some footing after a three-year slump. Home price declines have been moderating in many regions of the country and in some areas they have risen.

Improvement in the housing market bodes well for the U.S. economy, as it points to better demand in the sector where the first signs of the recession took root. But with distressed properties making up a high proportion of sales, there is widespread uncertainty about the sector’s long-term outlook.

To be sure, there is still a huge supply of unsold homes on the market and millions of more foreclosures are in the pipeline, which should continue to pressure prices.

The economic outlook is also crucial for housing demand and many potential buyers are staying sidelined due to unemployment or fear of losing their jobs. The U.S. Labor Department said the unemployment rate reached a 26-1/2-year high of 10.2 percent in October. Access to credit also remains tight.

While existing home sales are predicted to rise in October, declines are expected in the months following. Recent data indicates a sector that is still on shaky ground. The Commerce Department said new U.S. housing starts in October unexpectedly fell to the lowest level in six months, dropping 10.6 percent.

Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes for which a sale closed during the month.

The National Association of Realtors will release U.S. existing home sales data on Monday at 10 a.m. (1500 GMT).

Source: Reuters

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Housing and Economy Headed for Sustainable Recovery

November 18, 2009

Aided by the home buyer tax credit, the outlook for housing and the economy appears headed for a sustainable recovery, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the projections are enhanced by a tax credit expansion to more home buyers through the middle of 2010. “Given the success of the first-time buyer tax credit to date, and the need for qualified buyers to continue to absorb inventory that will include additional foreclosures over the coming year, we are hopeful about the impact of the expanded tax credit because it will stabilize home prices,” he said. “In fact, the credit is working better than first projected – it now looks like we’ll have 2.3 to 2.4 million first-time buyers this year.”Housing Chart

The 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, shows first-time buyers accounted for a record 47% share of home sales over the past year, up from 41% in the 2008 survey. The share has risen steadily since a cyclical low of 36% in 2006.

Existing-home sales are expected to total 5.01 million in 2009, a gain of 2.0% over last year, and then are forecast to rise 13.6% to 5.69 million in 2010. “A steady draw down of inventory will help home values to turn positive in 2010, but risks such as unemployment remain in the economy,” Yun said.

New-home sales are projected at 397,000 this year, recovering to 549,000 in 2010. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should total 564,000 units this year but grow to 752,000 in 2010.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 5.3% in the fourth quarter, rising gradually to 5.8% by the end of next year. NAR’s housing affordability index will set a record in 2009, averaging 30 percentage points higher than 2008. Affordability will decline from record highs next year but will remain at historically attractive levels for home buyers.

“We’ve seen a steady downtrend in housing inventory for well over a year and home prices appear to be in the early stages of stabilizing. With the expansion of the tax credit to additional buyers through the middle of next year, and no major unforeseen events impacting the economy, home prices should rise between 3 and 5% in 2010, but with wide geographic differences,” Yun said. He expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product to be at a pace of 2.5% in the current quarter, with GDP up 2.8% in 2010.

The unemployment rate is close to peaking and is projected to ease to 9.5% by the end of next year.

“The size of the U.S. budget deficit is a concern going forward, and carries the risk of higher inflation. At this point, that risk appears to be restrained,” Yun said. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen contracting 0.4% this year, then rising 1.6% in 2010. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is estimated to grow 0.4% this year and 1.2% next year.

For more information, visit www.realtor.org.

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Existing Home Sales Surge in Many States in Third Quarter

November 16, 2009

Most states continued to experience rising existing-home sales in the third quarter 2009, with prices moderating in many metro areas, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Realtors®. Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, increased 11.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.30 million units in the third quarter from 4.76 million units in the second quarter, and are now 5.9% above the 5.01 million-unit pace in the third quarter of 2008. Sales increased from the second quarter in 45 states and the District of Columbia; 28 states and D.C. saw double-digit gains. Year-over-year sales were higher in 32 states and D.C.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the tax credit is a significant factor. “We can’t underestimate just how powerful a catalyst the first-time home buyer tax credit has been for the housing sector,” he said. “It’s given buyers the confidence they needed to get off the fence and take advantage of extremely affordable housing conditions. The buying conditions this year are the most favorable on record dating back to 1970, but the tax credit is allowing buyers to set aside any reservations about waiting for a better deal.”

During the third quarter, 123 out of 153 metropolitan statistical areas reported lower median existing single-family home prices in comparison with the third quarter of 2008, while 30 areas had price gains.

The national median existing single-family price was $177,900, which is 11.2% below the third quarter of 2008; the median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. Distressed sales- foreclosures and short sales- accounted for 30% of transactions in the third quarter, which continued to weigh down median home prices because they sell at a discount relative to traditional homes.monday lead web

“The decline in the national median price has moderated recently, and a shrinking supply of unsold inventory suggests we are getting closer to price stabilization in many areas, but we need a steady stream of financially qualified buyers to further reduce inventory and get us to a self-sustaining market,” Yun said. “Foreclosures will continue to come on the market, but rising sales from the expanded tax credit should stabilize home prices by next spring and help to stem future foreclosures.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate on a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage rose to 5.16% in the third quarter from a record low 5.03% in the second quarter, but was dramatically lower than the 6.32% average rate in the third quarter of 2008.

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said he is encouraged by recent actions in Congress. “Extending and expanding the tax credit to more buyers through the middle of next year is the right medicine,” he said. “Congress understands the impact of housing on the economy, so consumers who aren’t able to complete a transaction before the end of this month now have a second chance but must have a contract in place by April 30, 2010.”

The biggest sales gain between the second and third quarters was in North Dakota, up 42.3%; followed by Rhode Island which rose 26.5%; and Pennsylvania, up 25.6%. The largest single-family home price increase in the third quarter was in the Cumberland area of Maryland and West Virginia at $122,100, up 19.2% from the third quarter of 2008. Next was the Davenport-Moline-Rock Island area of Iowa and Illinois, where the median price increased 14.3% to $115,600, followed by Oklahoma City, at $144,100, up 9.1% from a year ago.

“The wide range of market performance and reversals around the country, ranging from double-digit gains to double-digit losses in both sales and prices, underscores just how local real estate truly is,” Yun said. “The wide changes and mix of numbers also indicates a market in transition, hopefully to one that is becoming more balanced and stable.”

Median third-quarter metro area single-family home prices ranged from a very affordable $61,400 in the Saginaw-Saginaw Township North area of Michigan to $566,000 in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area of California. The second most expensive area in the third quarter was San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont at $538,100; followed by the Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine area of California at $498,800.

Other affordable markets include the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman area of Ohio and Pennsylvania at $70,700, and Lansing-East Lansing, Mich., at $86,600.

In the condo sector, metro area condominium and cooperative prices- covering changes in 55 metro areas- showed the national median existing-condo price was $178,000 in the third quarter, down 15.4% from the third quarter of 2008. Four metros showed annual increases in the median condo price and 51 areas had declines.

The metros experiencing condo price gains were San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, at $215,100, up 13.3%; followed by the Cincinnati-Middletown area, up 2.0% to $119,700; the Toledo, Ohio, area, where the median price of $130,400 rose 1.7% from the third quarter of 2008; and the Indianapolis area at $114,400, up 0.8%.

Metro area median existing-condo prices in the third quarter ranged from $67,600 in Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev., to $432,800 in San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont. The second most expensive reported condo market was New York-Wayne-White Plains at $297,500, followed by Boston-Cambridge-Quincy at $293,700. Other affordable condo markets include Reno-Sparks, Nev., at $81,300 in the third quarter, and Jacksonville, Fla., at $91,600.

Northeast

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast surged 16.7% in the third quarter to a pace of 930,000 units and are 6.9% higher than a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast declined 9.4% to $244,500 in the third quarter from the same quarter in 2008. The best price gain in the region was in Buffalo-Niagara Falls, N.Y., where the median price of $119,700 rose 4.8% from the third quarter of 2008; followed by Manchester-Nashua, N.H., at $237,600, up 2.6%; and the Pittsburgh area, where the median price rose 1.5 percent to $124,600.

Midwest

In the Midwest, existing-home sales jumped 13.2% in the third quarter to a pace of 1.20 million and are 5.2% above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest was down 5.5% to $150,200 in the third quarter from the same period in 2008. After Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, the next strongest metro price increase in the region was in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, where the median price of $145,700 was 7.6% higher than a year ago; followed by Bismarck, N.D., at $157,200, up 7.5%; and Ft. Wayne, Ind., where the median price rose 6.9 percent to $102,500.

South

In the South, existing-home sales rose 11.3% in the third quarter to an annual rate of 1.97 million and are 5.9% higher than the third quarter of 2008. The median existing single-family home price in the South was $160,000 in the third quarter, down 7.9% from a year earlier. After Cumberland and Oklahoma City, the next strongest price increase in the region was in Shreveport-Bossier City, La., at $152,300, up 8.6% from the third quarter of 2008; Jackson, Miss., at $141,200, up 4.6%; and Durham, N.C., where the median price rose 3.6% to $184,300.

West

Existing-home sales in the West increased 5.6% in the third quarter to an annual rate of 1.19 million and are 4.6% above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the West was $224,000 in the third quarter, which is 16.4% below the third quarter of 2008. The best metro price performance in the West was in Yakima, Wash., where the median price of $158,400 rose 2.7% from a year earlier; the Denver-Aurora area at $229,100, up 1.8%; and the Kennewick-Richland-Pasco area of Washington, where the median price rose 0.7% to $172,200.

For more information, visit www.realtor.org.

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Big Rebound in Existing Home Sales Shows First Time Buyer Momentum

October 26, 2009

Existing-home sales bounced back strongly in September with first-time buyers driving much of the activity, marking five gains in the past six months, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Existing-home sales–including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops–jumped 9.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million units in September from a level of 5.10 million in August, and are 9.2% higher than the 5.10 million-unit pace in September 2008. Sales activity is at the highest level in over two years, since it hit 5.73 million in July 2007.House

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said favorable conditions matched with a tax credit are boosting home sales. “Much of the momentum is from people responding to the first-time buyer tax credit, which is freeing many sellers to make a trade and buy another home,” he said. “We are hopeful the tax credit will be extended and possibly expanded to more buyers, at least through the middle of next year, because the rising sales momentum needs to continue for a few additional quarters until we reach a point of a self-sustaining recovery.”

Even with the improvement, Yun said the market is underperforming. “Despite spectacular gains in the stock market, principally from the financial sector recovery, most of the 75 million home owning families have more wealth tied to their homes. Home values could soon turn consistently positive and help the broad base of middle-class families, but we are not there yet,” he said. “We’re getting early indications of price stabilization, but we need a steady supply of qualified buyers to meaningfully bring inventories down and return us to a period of normal, steady price growth and to fully remove consumer fears, which would then revive the broader economy. Without a firm foundation for middle-class wealth recovery, the post-recession economic growth likely will be one of the weakest in U.S. history.”

Early information from a large annual consumer study to be released November 13, the 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, shows that first-time home buyers accounted for more than 45% of home sales during the past year. A separate practitioner survey shows that distressed homes accounted for 29% of transactions in September.

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said affordability conditions remain historically high. “Potential first-time buyers can take heart in that affordability conditions this year are the highest on record dating back to 1970, but with the first-time buyer tax credit scheduled to expire at the end of next month, people could hold back from entering the market,” he said. “Our read is that housing overshot on the downside because homes are selling for less than replacement construction costs in much of the country, and the home price-to-income ratio has fallen below the historical average,” McMillan said.

Total housing inventory at the end of September fell 7.5% to 3.63 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 7.8-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 9.3-month supply in August. Unsold inventory totals are 15.0% below a year ago.

“The current housing supply is the lowest we’ve seen in two and a half years,” Yun said. “If we could continue to absorb inventory at this pace, home prices would return to normal, modest appreciation patterns next year.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.06% in September from 5.19% in August; the rate was 6.04% in September 2008. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $174,900 in September, which is 8.5% lower than September 2008. Distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.

Single-family home sales rose 9.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million in September from a pace of 4.47 million in August, and are 7.7% above the 4.54 million-unit level in September 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $174,900 in September, which is 8.1% below a year ago. Existing condominium and co-op sales jumped 9.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 680,000 units in September from 620,000 in August, and are 9.7% above the 561,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price was $175,100 in September, down 11.7% from September 2008.

Northeast
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 4.4% to an annual level of 950,000 in September, and are 11.8% higher than September 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $234,700, down 7.0% from a year ago.

Midwest
Existing-home sales in the Midwest jumped 9.6% in September to a pace of 1.25 million and are 7.8% above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $147,600, which is 1.0% below September 2008.

South
In the South, existing-home sales rose 9.0% to an annual level of 2.06 million in September and are 10.8% higher than September 2008. The median price in the South was $153,500, down 7.6% from a year ago.

West
Existing-home sales in the West surged 13.0% to an annual rate of 1.30 million in September and are 5.7% above a year ago. The median price in the West was $219,000, which is 15.0% below September 2008.

For more information, visit www.realtor.org.

Source: RISMedia

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Existing Home Sales Rebound to 2 Year High

October 23, 2009

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes surged to their highest level in more than two years in September, a survey showed on Friday, providing further evidence the housing market and economy were on the mend.

The National Association of Realtors said sales surged 9.4 percent to an annual rate of 5.57 million units, the highest level since July 2007, from a downwardly revised 5.09 million units in August.Housing Chart

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected September sales to rise to a 5.35 million unit pace from the previously reported 5.10 million units in August.

William Larkin, portfolio manager with Cabot Money Management in Boston, said home sales were bolstered by a government program to give first-time buyers a tax credit.

“The existing home sales data is a good sign for the housing market. I would assume a lot of first-time buyers have scrambled to get this $8,000 credit. That will be the part that is hard to define within the numbers,” he said.

“It definitely looks like the stimulus that is going into housing is starting to form a bottom.”

U.S. stock indexes briefly recouped losses on the data, while government bond prices were little moved.

The housing sector’s collapse and the subsequent global credit crisishelped to push the U.S. economy into recession at the end of December, its worst slump in 70 years.

But the housing market is gradually crawling out of a three-year recession, and analysts believe that in the third quarter residential investment probably contributed to economic growth for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2005.

Signs of recovery in the housing market, coupled with other fairly upbeat data, strongly suggest the economy started growing again in the third quarter after four straight quarters of declining output.

Compared to September last year, existing home sales were up 9.2 percent.

Sales for both new and previously owned homes have boosted by a combination of a the popular $8,000 government tax credit for first-time buyers, low prices and mortgage rates.

But there are fears that the expiration of the tax credit at the end of November could hamper the recovery.

The Obama administration is still considering extending the program but is weighing that against efforts to bring down the federal deficit, senior White House officials said on Wednesday.

“We are hopeful the tax credit will be extended and possibly expanded to more buyers … because the rising sales momentum needs to continue for a few additional quarters until we reach a point of self-sustaining recovery,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun

The national median home price fell 8.5 percent to $174,900 in September from a year-ago. That was the smallest percentage decline in 13 months, the NAR said. Distressed properties made up 29 percent of sales last month, with first-time buyers accounting for 31 percent.

The inventory of existing homes for sale in September dropped 7.5 percent to 3.63 million units. September’s sales pace left the supply of previously owned homes on the market at 7.8 months’ worth, the lowest in two-and-a-half months, from 9.3 months’ worth in August.

Source: Reuters

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Record Streak Continues for Pending Home Sales

October 6, 2009

Pending home sales have increased for seven straight months, the longest in the series of the index which began in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors®.house_for_sale_10 03

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in August 2009, rose 6.4% to 103.8 from a reading of 97.6 in July, and is 12.4% above August 2008 when it was 92.4. The index is at the highest level since March 2007 when it was 104.5.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said not all contracts are turning into closed sales within an expected timeframe. “The rise in pending home sales shows buyers are returning to the market and signing contracts, but deals are not necessarily closing because of long delays related to short sales, and issues regarding complex new appraisal rules,” he said. “No doubt many first-time buyers are rushing to beat the deadline for the $8,000 tax credit, which expires at the end of next month.”

The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast jumped 8.2% to 85.3 in August and is 12.0% higher than August 2008. In the Midwest the index rose 3.1% to 90.8 in August and is 7.6% above a year ago. In the South, pending home sales increased 0.8% to an index of 104.6 and is 8.2% above August 2008. In the West the index surged 16.0% to 130.5 and is 22.3% above a year ago.

“There is likely to be some double counting over a span of several months because some buyers whose contracts were cancelled have found another home and signed a new contract to buy,” Yun explained. “Perhaps the real question is how many transactions are being delayed in the pipeline, and how many are being cancelled? Without historic precedents, it’s challenging to assess.”

Yun also noted that the data sample coverage for pending sales is smaller than the measurement for closed existing-home sales, so the two series will never match one for one.

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said first-time buyers need to act now. “Potential first-time buyers must make a contract offer very soon to have a reasonable chance of qualifying for the tax credit,” he said. “Congress needs to extend and expand this program because it’s stimulating the economy and reducing inventory close to price stabilization points.”

McMillan said a sizable number of homebuyers already in the pipeline could be let down because of the tight deadline. “We know there is a pent-up demand because sales are below normal levels for the size of our population. The faster we absorb excess inventory, the sooner we’ll turn the corner on home prices, prevent additional families from becoming upside-down in their mortgages, and give Wall Street the confidence to extend credit to other sectors,” he said. “Each home sale pumps an additional $63,000 into the economy through related goods and services, so the benefits of extending and expanding the tax credit far outweigh the costs.”

Yun said the forecast for home sales and prices depends very much on whether a tax credit is extended. “All we can say for certain is sales will decline when the tax credit expires because we are not yet on a self-sustaining recovery path. It also raises a risk of a double-dip recession,” he said. “Extending and expanding the tax credit is the best tool in our arsenal to encourage financially qualified buyers to stimulate the economy and help reduce the budget deficit.”

Source: RISMedia

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