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5 Smart Reasons to Buy a Home Now

The economy is stabilizing and home prices are holding. It’s not just as good a time as ever to buy a house—it’s one of the best times ever.

ForSaleByOwner.com presents five overlooked reasons why now is a great time to buy a house.

1. Low mortgage rates serve as an equity shock absorber. When buyers borrow at today’s record-low rates, they start building equity as soon as they close. That means they have a little give to absorb a few ups and downs as the still-recovering housing market gains traction.

2. Houses are in move-in condition. Homeowners have continued to spend on maintenance and repair, according to the Harvard Joint Center on Housing. Homeowners who have been holding back, kept their houses in good shape while they waited. As those houses enter the market, they are in marked contrast to tattered foreclosures.

3. Terrific houses are coming on the market. Foreclosures are finally starting to clear the system—and this is just the opportunity that owners of many desirable properties have been waiting for.

4. Appraisal regulations are finally aligned with market realities. Fannie Mae has adjusted its appraisal guidelines, giving appraisers more flexibility to set values that reflect the current market. This ensures that today’s deals will make it over the finish line.

5. Plenty of programs. Homes are more affordable than they have been for years, but communities have stuck by “workforce housing” programs that encourage middle-class families to buy houses. Buyers who qualify can get a big boost by combining one of these programs with today’s low mortgage rates.

Source: RISMedia

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Will a Short Sale Save Your Credit?

Source: RISMedia

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Foreclosure Filings Fall for Fourth Month

Foreclosure filings fell 8% in November 2009 from October, the fourth straight month of declines, RealtyTrac of Irvine, Calif., recently reported.

With one filing for every 417 houses nationally, November saw the lowest amount of foreclosure activity since February. The numbers, while 18% higher than the same month last year, were a result of “loan modifications and other foreclosure prevention efforts,” said RealtyTrac chief executive James J. Saccacio. He said the recently extended and expanded homebuyer tax credit was keeping a lid on home value depreciation.

Saccacio warned, however, that a full recovery will come only “when unemployment recedes to normal, healthy levels and when availability of credit reaches a more rational balance between the extremes of the past few years.”

Data from Integrated Asset Services of Denver showed values continuing to decline despite the buying boom fostered by the tax credit.

Home values actually declined 0.05% nationally in October from September, with the Northeast, especially metropolitan Boston, dragging the numbers down. The Northeast region fell 1.6%; the Middle Atlantic, 0.06%.

“I have no doubt that the tax credit persuaded some buyers to make their purchase sooner than they otherwise would have,” said Dave McCarthy, president and CEO of Integrated Asset Services. “It’s reasonable to think the broader market will reflect that reality at some point down the road.”

Although Saccacio credited loan modification efforts as helping slow the rate of foreclosures, a recent Treasury report on the Obama administration’s Making Home Affordable program showed the effort coming up woefully short in getting lenders to alter mortgage terms permanently. Programs to mitigate foreclosures are not having the desired impact, said Michael Feder, president of Radar Logic in New York, which tracks the housing market.

The Treasury Department reported that just 31,382 loans of the four million mortgages targeted had been modified permanently since the program began in February. There are 728,000 loans in “trial” modification. By some estimates, there is as much as $1 trillion in potential foreclosures already delinquent, Feder said. Lawmakers have been critical of the program, which they say is still focusing on the subprime-loan crisis of last year rather than mortgage foreclosures related to rising unemployment. They also have taken lenders to task, especially those who have taken government bailout money, known as TARP funds. Those lenders, however, have been reporting great success in modifying loans independent of the government program.

Resets of thousands of so-called exotic mortgages such as option adjustable-rate loans in 2010 “will undoubtedly lead to another wave of foreclosures as payments begin to double and triple,” said Sylvia Alayon, vice president of the Consumer Mortgage Audit Center in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

“When principal balances go up and house values continue to plummet, refinancing will no longer be an option for homeowners in negative amortization,” she said.

(c) 2009, The Philadelphia Inquirer.

Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

Read more: http://rismedia.com/2009-12-13/foreclosure-filings-fall-for-fourth-month/#ixzz0ZfxMpKNf

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Americans More Unhappy With Feds’ Housing Fixes

Trillions spent on propping up banks, buying mortgages, tax credits and new programs designed to lower payments and prevent foreclosures. And yet a new survey from Move Inc., the parent of Realtor.com, says Americans are growing increasingly dissatisfied with how Washington is handling the housing mess.

The October 2009 survey found that the federal government’s approval rating by consumers on housing issues has slipped since March 2009. By a six-percent margin, Americans said they don’t think the government is doing enough to stabilize the housing market (48.2% compared to 42.2% five months ago). According to the survey, consumers still want low interest rates (31.4%) and action by the government to help homeowners prevent foreclosures (28.5%), the same two top priorities expressed by survey respondents in March.

The survey found that public participation in the programs to prevent foreclosures is much lower than anticipated. In March 2009, several days after the details of the Making Home Affordable program were announced; Move’s survey found that 17.6 percent of those interviewed said they intended to participate in the Administration’s program. Now only 8.8 percent said they actually did participate.
The number of consumers interested in investing in real estate has doubled since March. One out of eight (12.1%) homebuyers today plan to purchase a home as an investment property, compared to 5.6 percent seven months ago.

Fear of foreclosure is fading. In March 52.5 percent of all survey respondents said they were concerned that they or someone they know may face foreclosure in the next 6 to 12 months. That number dipped slightly to 45.1 percent in October.

The survey of 1,000 people was conducted the third week of October.

Source: BusinessWeek

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What Impact Will Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension Have on Housing Industry?

Congress is a step closer to extending the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit and offering a new credit to other types of buyers, but some analysts are downplaying the controversial stimulus’ effect on the housing market.

In a recent interview, Fox-Pitt Kelton analyst Robert Stevenson said the Senate’s proposal for extending the $8,000 tax credit for new homebuyers will have a “limited impact” on home sales.

A Senate committee reached a deal last week to extend the $8,000 tax credit and offer a smaller $6,500 credit for some existing homeowners. The main pitfall of the proposal is that it only pushes back the expiration of the tax credit to the end of April, Stevenson said. It is currently set to go away on Dec. 1. Stevenson said he’s skeptical the tax credit will drive activity during the slower winter months. The prime selling season for the housing market kicks off in the spring and tends to run through the warmer months. “Of course, Congress could come back and extend it again,” the analyst said. “When the next selling season starts, the housing market will depend on the state of the economy and mortgage rates, rather than tax credits.”

The $6,500 credit for some repeat homebuyers would let more buyers participate albeit at a lower level, “but a lot of those people are effectively trapped in their current homes,” Stevenson said.

From their peak in 2006, U.S. home prices have fallen about 30% through the end of August 2009 during the housing downturn, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. More Americans are falling behind on their mortgage payments or losing their homes in the recession as job losses pile up. Rising foreclosures are another key worry. Yet hopes that a recovery is in place were fueled by a report showing the fourth straight month of rising home prices. Some attributed the tentative rebound to buyers rushing to cash in on the expiring $8,000 tax credit. The push to extend and expand the credit has been led by home builders, Realtors and other groups connected to the housing market.

“Failure to act now could derail the fragile housing recovery even before it has time to take root,” said Jerry Howard, president of the National Association of Home Builders, in a statement urging Congress to stretch the tax credit. “The consequences would be devastating for both housing and the economy.” Howard said the tax credit has already helped create nearly 200,000 jobs, drive home sales, stem foreclosures and stabilize prices. Homebuilder stocks were up sharply in the wake of the news on the Senate compromise. Still, some economists say the incentive’s impact is overblown.

“I am not applying the recent home-price rebound to the tax credit,” said Cameron Findlay, chief economist at LendingTree, in a recent interview. “I don’t think the tax credit makes as big an impact as people make it out to be, although it certainly motivates first-time buyers,” he said. “If it expires, I don’t think it would shake the housing market as much as some have predicted.”

The compromise on extending the tax credit doesn’t mean it’s a sure thing, and the proposal still face votes in Congress. One potential snag is a recent government report that uncovered fraud and abuse associated with the tax credit. Thousands of ineligible taxpayers have received millions of dollars under the program, according to the report.

Stephen East, an analyst at Pali Research, said the proposed new $6,500 credit would likely have some impact on the lower-end of the move-up market. “In essence, this could slowly start to prime the pump,” East forecast. “That said, we remain wary that any measurable impact will be seen until after the holidays and investors need to reconcile their expectations to that.”

(c) 2009, MarketWatch.com Inc.

Source: RISMedia

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August Data: Another Month of Better News

For the first time since the middle of 2006, home values nationally were essentially flat on a month-over-month basis, with values declining just 0.1% from July 2009 to August 2009. The annual change in home values for the U.S. was -7.6% in August and the Zillow Home Value Index dropped to $191,200, its lowest level since April 2004.

Sixteen of the top 24 markets have had three or more consecutive months of month-over-month gains in home values. Three of the 24 markets have had six months of consecutive monthly gains: Boston, Denver and Pittsburgh. The top metro markets with the largest declines from peak levels are, in descending order: Las Vegas (-54%), Riverside (-52%), Phoenix (-47%), Miami (-44%), and Tampa (-41%).

As Zillow has noted before, it’s foreclosures that are likely to spoil the party soon. Home sales will begin to drop off now that the bulk of the 2009 home buying season is over, but foreclosures are increasing in most major metro markets.

Nationally, we may see September actually turn in a positive month-over-month change in home values but, thereafter, values are expected to start dropping again, and we expect them to keep dropping until sometime in the spring of this coming year, at which time we will have reached a true bottom in home values nationally.

For more details on the top metro markets during the month of August, click here.

Stan Humphries is the Chief Economist for Zillow.com.

For more information, visit www.zillow.com.

Source: RISMedia

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Home Price Reduction Levels Stay Above 25% For Fourth Consecutive Month

Trulia, Inc announced that 25.6% of homes currently on the market in the U.S. as of October 1, 2009 have experienced at least one price cut. More than one in four current listings on Trulia have been reduced in price for the fourth straight month. The total amount slashed from home prices is $28.4 billion, a $967 million increase from June 2009. The average discount for price-reduced homes continues to hold steady at 10% off of the original listing price.

Northeast with Most Homes Reduced; West Sees Biggest Cuts
Five of the 10 states with the highest percentage of homes with price reductions are in the Northeast— Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Hampshire and New Jersey. One in three homes in these states has cut their list price at least once.

Seven of the 10 states leading the country with the biggest listing price cuts are in the West, where heavy foreclosures have taken their toll. In Nevada, Idaho, Arizona, Wyoming, Hawaii, Utah and California, cuts are an average of 13% off the original list price. Of the $28.4 billion slashed nationally, New York, California and Florida account for 35% of the total value of reductions.

Report Findings
For the first time in four months, Jacksonville no longer holds the top spot for highest level of home-price reductions: Memphis replaced Jacksonville with 36% of current listings experiencing at least one round of discounts. Several cities continue to see high levels of cuts on home prices with Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Portland and Raleigh, all earning a place in the top 10 for the third consecutive month.

“Interest in real estate typically wanes at the end of the year, which means that sellers who didn’t aggressively price their homes may find themselves making difficult decisions to reduce their prices or delay the sale until interest piques again in January,” said Pete Flint, Trulia co-founder and CEO. “We are seeing the beginning of this trend in the Northeast and Western United States with discounting happening at all price points, and expect it to continue.”

Cities experiencing significant increases in percentage of listings with price reductions from June 2009 to October 2009 include:
-Kansas City, MO – 50% increase in price reductions
-Colorado Springs, CO – 32% increase in price reductions
-Louisville, KY – 27% increase in price reductions
-Indianapolis, IN – 27% increase in price reductions
-Portland, OR – 25% increase in price reductions
-Oklahoma City, OK – 24% increase in price reductions
-Memphis, TN – 24% increase in price reductions
-Tulsa, OK – 23% increase in price reductions
-Milwaukee, WI – 22% increase in price reductions
-Arlington, VA – 22% increase in price reductions

Cities showing the highest percentage of declines for listings with price reductions from June 2009 to October 2009 include:
-San Antonio, TX – 37% decrease in price reductions
-Las Vegas, NV – 36% decrease in price reductions
-Oakland, CA – 17% decrease in price reductions
-San Jose, CA – 16% decrease in price reductions
-Los Angeles, CA – 14% decrease in price reductions
-Honolulu, HI – 11% decrease in price reductions
-Long Beach, CA – 11% decrease in price reductions
-Dallas, TX – 11% decrease in price reductions
-Washington, D.C. – 10% decrease in price reductions
-New York, NY – 9% decrease in price reductions

Luxury Market Not Immune
Luxury homes (those listed at $2 million and above) continue to bear the brunt of discounts being offered with an average of 14% being slashed from the original asking price compared to the national average of 10%. Additionally, luxury homes represent less than 2% of all current listings on Trulia, but are responsible for 25% of the $28.4 billion in home price reductions.

For more information, visit www.trulia.com.

Source: RISMedia

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Foreclosures Move Up Market

Recently, there’s been a fair bit of anecdotal discussion around the assertion that foreclosures, once a problem just for the sub-prime segment of mortgages, have been moving up-market. That is, people are suggesting that we’re seeing more foreclosures in the mid- to high-end segments of the market.

Turns out, there’s a lot of truth to this idea. In 2006, at the height of the real estate bubble, homes in the bottom one-third of home values made up almost 55% of all foreclosures. Homes in the middle one-third of home values made up almost 29% of foreclosures and homes in the top one-third represented just 16% of foreclosures. In the accompanying chart, you can see the dramatic changes in the distribution of home values among foreclosed homes. In July 2009, the bottom one-third made up 35% of foreclosures, compared to 35% and 30% for the middle and top one-thirds, respectively. Those are shocking numbers: Thirty percent of foreclosures are homes in the top tier of local home values. That means that top-tier homes make up almost twice the proportion of foreclosures as they did just three years ago.

High delinquency rates in Prime, Alt-A and Option ARM mortgage products and declining cure rates (the rate at which borrowers resolve their delinquency status) are resulting in many more foreclosures among borrowers outside of the sub-prime mortgage market (and in higher priced segments of the market). Amherst Securities Group recently provided some data showing the higher delinquency rates for these products and the strong relationship between increased negative equity and decreased probability of resolving delinquency status (see their Exhibit 9, which shows, of borrowers who are 30 days delinquent, the percentage who become 60 days delinquent by their current loan-to-value ratios, where values greater than 100 indicate negative equity). As of the end of the second quarter of this year, Zillow estimated that 23% of single-family homes with mortgages are underwater on their mortgages, so expect cure rates to stay lower than they would be otherwise.

Methodology
Looking at the distribution of foreclosures by home value can be significantly distorted by the variances in home values across the country. For example, it might appear that high-end homes as a percentage of all foreclosures is quite high nationally, but the reality is simply that areas with lots of foreclosures happen to be areas where home prices are higher. In order to better isolate the distribution of foreclosures by price segment without introducing the geographic variability of home prices, we have examined home prices while controlling for the local price level of all homes.

Specifically, from all homes in the Zillow database with valuations (~70 million), Zillow computed the ratio between the current house value and the current level of the Zillow Home Value Index for the county in which the home is located. We then computed the 33rd and 66th percentiles of this ratio and assigned all homes to three price tiers: bottom (homes where the ratio was less than the 33rd percentile), middle (homes where the ratio was between the 33rd and 66th percentiles) and top (homes where the ratio was greater than the 66th percentile). We then extracted all foreclosures since 2000 and computed, by month, the percentage of foreclosures in the month represented by homes in each price tier.

Stan Humphries is the chief economist for Zillow.com.

For more information, visit www.zillow.com.

Source: RISMedia

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